🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still