Can the Scottish team finally end the New Zealand curse?

Match action
New Zealand implemented several changes to the squad that beat Ireland

International Rugby Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: this weekend Kick-off: 15:10 GMT

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Rugby action
Graham crossed the line in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in the previous encounter

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.

Lisa Massey
Lisa Massey

A passionate artist and writer sharing insights on creativity and mindful living to inspire others.

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